Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not taken. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting high risk guys. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. The level of risk you are willing to take should inversely correlate to the round of the draft. Reviewing last year's draft helps a lot with this. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings on ESPN or auto-draft settings. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his or her draft strategy. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies.
Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. The best drafts combine strategies and consider the whole picture. Same with relying on a raw value based drafting approach, using rankings, or any other single method. Relying on a simple positional strategy omits all of that. You need to take into consideration the needs of your team, the risk of that player under-performing his draft position, the opportunity cost of drafting that player, bye weeks, and a myriad of other factors. You're telling the world "At this moment I think this guy is the best player available for my team." In order to make that statement you have to have more than a positional strategy, you need to take a holistic approach. When you draft a player, you're making a statement. The answer to all these questions is the same: It Depends On The Circumstances. When should I draft a QB? Should I go RB-RB-RB or WR-RB-WR? Should I get a TE early or wait until the end? I'm in a 2QB/4WR/1RB/FLX/2DST 19 man league with 3.14 PPR and TEs get +1 PPR on Thursday games against teams with blue pants, when should I draft a kicker? But every year we see the same questions. The fact that we're even discussing this right now is indicative of our collective madness.
Consider this a living document, and let me know what you think!ĭraft strategies are curious things, a strange combination of prognostication and historical analysis. As we get closer to training camp I thought it would be appropriate to revisit those ideas and put together some new thoughts and suggestions. Every year I put together a list of general suggestions for draft strategies and the community provides some wonderful insight and updates.
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